Model the revenue engine
Revenue depends on available nights, occupancy, average booked rate, stay length, cleaning and other fees, discounts, cancellations and channel mix. Use comparable evidence and keep assumptions visible. Do not multiply a peak advertised rate by 365. Model seasonality and availability constraints month by month where material.
Capture full costs and cash
Include rent, utilities, internet, insurance, cleaning gaps, linen, consumables, platform and payment fees, software, levies, maintenance, replacements, refunds, labour, accounting and compliance. Separate profit from cash timing. Add setup cost, bond, advance rent, furnishing, professional fees and a reserve. Calculate break-even occupancy and months to recover setup under each scenario.
Decision governance
Set approval thresholds before seeing the final result: minimum downside resilience, maximum payback, reserve after launch and failed-gate rules. Perform sensitivity tests on the few assumptions that drive the outcome. A financially attractive property still fails if consent, compliance, safety or insurance gates fail. Issue one written decision with conditions and review date.